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Dominant Coquimbo Unido run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Deportes Iquique.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Iquique 0-3 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.80 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.10 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Iquique fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 54% | Draw 23% | Coquimbo Unido 23%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.60 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights