🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 8, as Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo drew 2-2 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.09 xG and Colo Colo 1.30 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Iquique beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.87 / defence 1.24 against Colo Colo attack 1.01 / defence 0.81, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 31% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 41%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Colo Colo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Colo Colo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights