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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Deportes Iquique defy the odds to beat Cobresal 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Iquique beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.24 xG and Cobresal 1.36 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.90 / defence 1.27 against Cobresal attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 34% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 40%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Deportes Iquique win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 74%, Cobresal 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Cobresal's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.16 PPG, Cobresal 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Iquique win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights