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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Deportes Iquique defy the odds to beat A. Italiano 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Iquique beat A. Italiano 1-0 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.27 xG and A. Italiano 1.56 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. A. Italiano landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.90 / defence 1.29 against A. Italiano attack 1.12 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 31% | Draw 25% | A. Italiano 44%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Deportes Iquique win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 76%, A. Italiano 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

A. Italiano's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.17 PPG, A. Italiano 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Iquique win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. A. Italiano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights