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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as D. La Serena defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

D. La Serena beat Union La Calera 1-0 at Estadio La Portada, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 0.98 xG and Union La Calera 1.11 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Union La Calera attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 31% | Draw 31% | Union La Calera 38%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual D. La Serena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights