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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as D. La Serena edge out Union Espanola 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

D. La Serena beat Union Espanola 1-0 at Estadio La Portada, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.58 xG and Union Espanola 1.39 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Espanola landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Union Espanola attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 42% | Draw 24% | Union Espanola 34%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights