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Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat D. La Serena 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat D. La Serena 0-1 at La Portada, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.21 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.17 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. D. La Serena fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.98 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 37% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 35%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. La Serena 57%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

D. La Serena's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. D. La Serena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights