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Shock result as Universidad de Chile defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.10 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.95 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.93 / defence 0.73, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 39% | Draw 30% | Universidad de Chile 31%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Universidad de Chile win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, Universidad de Chile 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 2.00 PPG, Universidad de Chile 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights