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Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Universidad de Chile.

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Match Analysis

Coquimbo Unido host Universidad de Chile at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Coquimbo Unido at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Universidad de Chile — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Universidad de Chile away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Coquimbo Unido are in the better shape of the two on current Primera División data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Coquimbo Unido have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while Universidad de Chile have managed just 1 wins.

The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Coquimbo Unido a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 47% versus Universidad de Chile 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 43% | Universidad de Chile 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.10 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.048 / defence 0.998 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.926 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.028. Universidad de Chile's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Coquimbo Unido games / 36 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 39% | Draw 30% | Universidad de Chile 31%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Universidad de Chile 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Universidad de Chile 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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