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Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Union La Calera.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera meet at in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Current Form

Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 6W 2D 2L at — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Union La Calera have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union La Calera away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Coquimbo Unido. A 0.90 PPG lead over Union La Calera (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Coquimbo Unido, who have won 6 of the last 9 meetings against Union La Calera — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

The historical record gives Coquimbo Unido a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Union La Calera goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 49% versus Union La Calera 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 47% | Union La Calera 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.55 xG and Union La Calera 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.939 / defence 0.845 | Union La Calera attack 0.795 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.198. Data: 45 Coquimbo Unido games / 45 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 55% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 19%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Union La Calera 40% BTTS from recent games.

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