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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out U. Catolica 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat U. Catolica 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.44 xG and U. Catolica 1.14 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. U. Catolica landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against U. Catolica attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 30%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, U. Catolica 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG, U. Catolica 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights