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Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Palestino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Palestino 3-1 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.60 xG and Palestino 1.08 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against Palestino attack 1.09 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 50% | Draw 25% | Palestino 26%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, Palestino 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.58. Form held, and they took the win. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights