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Stalemate at Coquimbo Unido's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido and O'Higgins finished level at 0-0 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.88 xG and O'Higgins 1.52 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.9 short of their projected output. O'Higgins landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against O'Higgins attack 1.34 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 46% | Draw 22% | O'Higgins 32%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, O'Higgins 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

O'Higgins's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. O'Higgins (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights