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Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over O'Higgins.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat O'Higgins 2-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.06 xG and O'Higgins 0.75 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against O'Higgins attack 0.95 / defence 0.78, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 42% | Draw 32% | O'Higgins 26%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, O'Higgins 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

O'Higgins's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. O'Higgins (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights