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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Coquimbo Unido and Nublense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 10, as Coquimbo Unido and Nublense drew 1-1 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.13 xG and Nublense 1.09 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Nublense attack 0.92 / defence 0.70, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 36% | Draw 29% | Nublense 35%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, Nublense 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights