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Stalemate at Coquimbo Unido's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.34 xG and Huachipato 0.91 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Huachipato landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.96 / defence 0.87 against Huachipato attack 0.95 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 45% | Draw 32% | Huachipato 24%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, Huachipato 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG, Huachipato 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights