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Dominant Coquimbo Unido run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Deportes Iquique.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Iquique 4-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.49 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.71 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.84 / defence 0.69 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 56% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 18%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 38%, Deportes Iquique 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights