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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out D. La Serena 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat D. La Serena 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.80 xG and D. La Serena 0.75 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.06 / defence 0.73 against D. La Serena attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 62% | Draw 22% | D. La Serena 15%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 41%, D. La Serena 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.

D. La Serena's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights