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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Cobresal 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Cobresal 3-2 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.79 xG and Cobresal 1.10 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Cobresal attack 1.01 / defence 1.30, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 53% | Draw 23% | Cobresal 23%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights