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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primera División · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sun 11 Oct 2026

21:00

Venue

Estadio Ester Roa

Competition

Primera División

Chile

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Concepción Win

44%

Concepción

2.27

26%

Draw

3.83

30%

Union La Calera

3.36

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.9%

Home win

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.45

Concepción xG

Total xG

2.58

1.14

Union La Calera xG

44%
26%
30%
ConcepciónDrawUnion La Calera

2.27

44%

Home win

3.83

26%

Draw

3.36

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.08

Clean Sheet

32%

Concepción

3.12

24%

Union La Calera

4.24

Win to Nil

14%

Concepción

7.08

7%

Union La Calera

14.24

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.5 8.6 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.1
1 10.9 12.4 7.1 2.7 0.8 0.2
2 7.9 9.0 5.1 1.9 0.6 0.1
3 3.8 4.3 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.445
λ Away (xG) 1.139
Total xG 2.584
League avg home goals 1.609
League avg away goals 1.198
Concepción attack strength 0.877
Concepción defence strength 1.196
Union La Calera attack strength 0.795
Union La Calera defence strength 1.023
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 15 / 45