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Primera División · Regular Season - 20

Kick-off

Sun 23 Aug 2026

21:00

Venue

Estadio Ester Roa

Competition

Primera División

Chile

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Coquimbo Unido Win

30%

Concepción

3.28

24%

Draw

4.19

46%

Coquimbo Unido

2.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

9.2%

Away win

0 – 1

8.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.33

Concepción xG

Total xG

3.01

1.68

Coquimbo Unido xG

30%
24%
46%
ConcepciónDrawCoquimbo Unido

3.28

30%

Home win

4.19

24%

Draw

2.19

46%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

35%

Over 3.5

2.86

65%

Under 3.5

1.54

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.67

40%

BTTS No

2.49

Clean Sheet

19%

Concepción

5.34

26%

Coquimbo Unido

3.78

Win to Nil

6%

Concepción

17.52

12%

Coquimbo Unido

8.29

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.9 8.3 7.0 3.9 1.6 0.5
1 6.6 11.0 9.2 5.2 2.2 0.7
2 4.4 7.3 6.1 3.4 1.4 0.5
3 1.9 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2
4 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.330
λ Away (xG) 1.676
Total xG 3.006
League avg home goals 1.609
League avg away goals 1.198
Concepción attack strength 0.877
Concepción defence strength 1.196
Coquimbo Unido attack strength 1.170
Coquimbo Unido defence strength 0.942
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 15 / 45