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Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Union La Calera 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Union La Calera 1-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.80 xG and Union La Calera 0.92 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Colo Colo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Union La Calera landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.19 / defence 0.97 against Union La Calera attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 58% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 19%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 52%, Union La Calera 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights