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Dominant Colo Colo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Union La Calera.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Union La Calera 4-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.97 xG and Union La Calera 1.03 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.21 / defence 1.04 against Union La Calera attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 59% | Draw 22% | Union La Calera 19%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 49%, Union La Calera 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Union La Calera's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights