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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Colo Colo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Colo Colo 1-4 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.77 xG and U. Catolica 1.03 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. U. Catolica outscored their 1.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.27 / defence 0.99 against U. Catolica attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 55% | Draw 23% | U. Catolica 22%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a U. Catolica win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 48%, U. Catolica 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

U. Catolica's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colo Colo 1.90 PPG, U. Catolica 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights