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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Colo Colo run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Nublense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Nublense 6-2 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.13 xG and Nublense 0.87 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 4.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nublense outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against Nublense attack 0.92 / defence 0.72, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 42% | Draw 30% | Nublense 28%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 52%, Nublense 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights