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Dominant Colo Colo run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Deportes Iquique.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Deportes Iquique 4-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 2.24 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.12 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Deportes Iquique landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.16 / defence 1.06 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.93 / defence 1.31, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 63% | Draw 19% | Deportes Iquique 18%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 48%, Deportes Iquique 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights