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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coquimbo Unido.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Coquimbo Unido 3-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.11 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.09 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 36% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 35%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 52%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colo Colo 1.85 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colo Colo win broke the near-deadlock. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights