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Dominant Colo Colo run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cobresal.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Cobresal 4-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.73 xG and Cobresal 1.03 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.21 / defence 0.94 against Cobresal attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 54% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 22%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 43%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights