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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as A. Italiano defy the odds to beat Colo Colo 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Colo Colo 1-2 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 2.51 xG and A. Italiano 1.35 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Colo Colo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.37 / defence 1.03 against A. Italiano attack 1.12 / defence 1.25, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 63% | Draw 18% | A. Italiano 19%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a A. Italiano win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 51%, A. Italiano 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

A. Italiano's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with A. Italiano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights