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Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at El Cobre, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.02 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.14 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.01 / defence 1.30 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.79 / defence 0.65, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 32% | Draw 29% | Universidad de Chile 38%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cobresal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 63%, Universidad de Chile 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights