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Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Universidad de Chile 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Universidad de Chile 2-1 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.74 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.36 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 46% | Draw 23% | Universidad de Chile 30%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 67%, Universidad de Chile 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.43 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights