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Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out U. Catolica 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat U. Catolica 3-2 at El Cobre, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.38 xG and U. Catolica 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. U. Catolica outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.00 / defence 0.85 against U. Catolica attack 1.15 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 47% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 26%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 63%, U. Catolica 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.33 PPG, U. Catolica 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights