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Cobresal and U. Catolica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 7, as Cobresal and U. Catolica drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.44 xG and U. Catolica 1.00 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against U. Catolica attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 45% | Draw 32% | U. Catolica 24%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 67%, U. Catolica 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.43 PPG, U. Catolica 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights