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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Palestino 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Palestino 2-1 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.14 xG and Palestino 1.07 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Palestino attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 37% | Draw 29% | Palestino 34%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 61%, Palestino 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Palestino's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.27 PPG, Palestino 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights