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Shock result as O'Higgins defy the odds to beat Cobresal 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

O'Higgins beat Cobresal 2-3 at El Cobre, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.90 xG and O'Higgins 1.85 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. O'Higgins outscored their 1.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against O'Higgins attack 1.40 / defence 1.22, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 40% | Draw 21% | O'Higgins 38%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual O'Higgins win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 63%, O'Higgins 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

O'Higgins's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.33 PPG, O'Higgins 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the O'Higgins win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. O'Higgins (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights