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Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Cobresal 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina beat Cobresal 1-2 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.61 xG and Everton de Vina 0.81 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Everton de Vina attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 56% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 19%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Everton de Vina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 61%, Everton de Vina 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.38 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights