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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Deportes Limache run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Cobresal.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Limache beat Cobresal 2-5 at El Cobre, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.58 xG and Deportes Limache 1.00 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Deportes Limache outscored their 1.00 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Deportes Limache attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 51% | Draw 25% | Deportes Limache 24%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Limache win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 57%, Deportes Limache 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cobresal arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Deportes Limache winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights