🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as A. Italiano defy the odds to beat Cobresal 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Cobresal 0-1 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.56 xG and A. Italiano 0.91 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cobresal fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against A. Italiano attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 53% | Draw 26% | A. Italiano 22%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a A. Italiano win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 67%, A. Italiano 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.43 PPG, A. Italiano 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the A. Italiano win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. A. Italiano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights