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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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A. Italiano and Universidad de Chile share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano and Universidad de Chile finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.96 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.38 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. A. Italiano fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.31 / defence 1.10 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 51% | Draw 22% | Universidad de Chile 27%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 52%, Universidad de Chile 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights