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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as A. Italiano edge out Union La Calera 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Union La Calera 4-3 at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.31 xG and Union La Calera 0.78 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. A. Italiano beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union La Calera outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Union La Calera attack 0.72 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 49% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 22%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 51%, Union La Calera 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Union La Calera's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.40 PPG, Union La Calera 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the A. Italiano win broke the near-deadlock. A. Italiano (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights