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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as U. Catolica defy the odds to beat A. Italiano 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat A. Italiano 3-4 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.63 xG and U. Catolica 0.94 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. A. Italiano beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. U. Catolica outscored their 0.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.04 / defence 0.79 against U. Catolica attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 54% | Draw 25% | U. Catolica 22%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a U. Catolica win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 53%, U. Catolica 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.43 PPG, U. Catolica 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. A. Italiano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights