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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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A. Italiano cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Deportes Iquique.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Deportes Iquique 4-2 at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.71 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.11 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. A. Italiano beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Deportes Iquique outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 51% | Draw 24% | Deportes Iquique 25%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 50%, Deportes Iquique 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Deportes Iquique arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with A. Italiano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. A. Italiano (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights