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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out A. Italiano 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat A. Italiano 0-1 at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.17 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.44 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. A. Italiano fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.30 / defence 0.71, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 31% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 43%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 50%, Coquimbo Unido 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. A. Italiano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights