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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant A. Italiano run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Concepción.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Concepción 3-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.53 xG and Concepción 0.70 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. A. Italiano beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.00 / defence 0.83 against Concepción attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 57% | Draw 26% | Concepción 17%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights