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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as A. Italiano edge out Cobresal 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 2.58 xG and Cobresal 1.21 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.18 / defence 1.10 against Cobresal attack 0.98 / defence 1.37, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 67% | Draw 17% | Cobresal 16%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 53%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.43 PPG, Cobresal 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the A. Italiano win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights