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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat A. Italiano 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat A. Italiano 1-2 at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.82 xG and Cobresal 1.11 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. A. Italiano fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Cobresal outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.23 / defence 1.17 against Cobresal attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 54% | Draw 23% | Cobresal 23%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Cobresal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 53%, Cobresal 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Cobresal's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.40 PPG, Cobresal 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights