York United 0-2 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valour make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at York Lions Stadium this season.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Valour away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in York United's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 54% versus Valour 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 48% | Valour 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.35 xG and Valour 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.031 / defence 1.030 | Valour attack 1.000 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.094. Data: 28 York United games / 28 Valour games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: York United 42% | Draw 27% | Valour 31%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Valour 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: York United 50% | Valour 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 42% | Draw 27% | Valour 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG York United 1.35 / Valour 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.031 / def 1.030 | Valour attack 1.000 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: York United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Valour xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Valour kick off?
York United vs Valour kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Valour?
York United 0 - 2 Valour.
Where is York United vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Valour part of?
York United vs Valour is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives York United a 42% chance of winning, Valour a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both York United and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Valour in?
York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Valour (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from York United's attack rating (1.03) and Valour's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.00x) against York United's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.71
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
York United xG
Total xG
2.48
1.13
Valour xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are York United and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for York United and 1.13 for Valour, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 19D 20L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Valour sit at 1.29 PPG from 56 outings (20W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for York United against 1.29 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 9W 10D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.82 points per game from 28 outings (6W 5D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.32 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Valour in coming into this match?
York United have gone 17W 19D 20L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Valour have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Valour away?
York United's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.32 PPG; Valour away: 0.82 PPG.
Have York United or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Valour in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between York United and Valour?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 54%, Valour 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (York United) and 61% (Valour).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of York United's games and 68% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of York United's recent games and 61% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Valour tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Valour in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat York United 0-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.35 xG and Valour 1.13 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. York United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Valour outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Valour attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 42% | Draw 27% | Valour 31%, with York United to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 48%, Valour 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.25 PPG, Valour 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Valour (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.