York United 2-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valour at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valour make the trip to IG Field to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Thursday 8 July 2021 at 03:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 0.67 PPG across 3 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 0W 2D 1L. Last five: L D D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. York United have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 3 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Valour have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Valour are the stronger side — 2.33 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.67). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 100% versus Valour 0%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (York United 67% | Valour 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.01 xG and Valour 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.074 / defence 1.326 | Valour attack 1.007 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 0.994. Data: 3 York United games / 3 Valour games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: York United 28% | Draw 28% | Valour 44%. Fair-value odds: York United 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Valour 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valour as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: York United 100% | Valour 0%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jul 2021, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 28% | Draw 28% | Valour 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG York United 1.01 / Valour 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.074 / def 1.326 | Valour attack 1.007 / def 0.966 | league avg home 0.972 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Valour (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Valour xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Valour kick off?
York United vs Valour kicked off at 03:00 on Thursday 8 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in York United vs Valour?
York United 2 - 1 Valour.
Where is York United vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is York United vs Valour part of?
York United vs Valour is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives York United a 28% chance of winning, Valour a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both York United and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Valour in?
York United (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-D. Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from York United's attack rating (1.07) and Valour's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.01x) against York United's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.61
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
York United xG
Total xG
2.33
1.33
Valour xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are York United and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for York United and 1.33 for Valour, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 2D 1L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D. It's still early in the season for York United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valour sit at 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valour, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valour carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.33 PPG clear of York United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Valour in 0%.
Defensively: Valour in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Early Season
Valour
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Valour in coming into this match?
York United have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Valour have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have York United or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Valour in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between York United and Valour?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 100%, Valour 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for York United and 0% for Valour.
On the defensive side: Valour in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of York United's recent matches and 0% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of York United's recent games and 0% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Valour tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Valour in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Valour 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Valour 2-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.01 xG and Valour 1.33 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.07 / defence 1.33 against Valour attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it York United 28% | Draw 28% | Valour 44%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 67%, Valour 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valour arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with York United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valour managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.