York United 0-2 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Forge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 July 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Forge have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Forge are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Forge trading profile (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 54% versus Forge 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 44% | Forge 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 0.98 xG and Forge 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.821 / defence 0.862 | Forge attack 1.354 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.297. Forge have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 York United games / 39 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 25% | Draw 26% | Forge 50%. Fair-value odds: York United 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Forge 2.00. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | Forge 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jul 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 25% | Draw 26% | Forge 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG York United 0.98 / Forge 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.821 / def 0.862 | Forge attack 1.354 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Forge (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Forge xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Forge kick off?
York United vs Forge kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 9 July 2022 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Forge?
York United 0 - 2 Forge.
Where is York United vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Forge part of?
York United vs Forge is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives York United a 25% chance of winning, Forge a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both York United and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Forge in?
York United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Forge (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
York United's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
25%
4.08
26%
3.86
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
York United xG
Total xG
2.49
1.51
Forge xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
5%
18.52
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are York United and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for York United and 1.51 for Forge, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, York United have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 10W 17D 14L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge's form line: 22W 4D 15L from 41 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Venue Form
On home soil, York United have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L).
On the road, Forge have gone 11W 1D 7L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.54 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Forge in coming into this match?
York United have gone 10W 17D 14L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Forge have gone 22W 4D 15L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.21 PPG; Forge away: 1.79 PPG.
Have York United or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Forge in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Forge specifically: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
York United
3
Draws
7
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Forge have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between York United and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 47%, Forge 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (York United) and 47% (Forge).
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Forge in 42%; York United have failed to score in 32% of games; Forge in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of York United's recent matches and 32% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of York United's recent games and 47% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Forge tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Forge in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 0-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 0.98 xG and Forge 1.51 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. York United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.82 / defence 0.86 against Forge attack 1.35 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 25% | Draw 26% | Forge 50%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 44%, Forge 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.