York United 1-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 43%, yet in-form Forge provide a compelling counter-argument — this York United vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Forge have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Forge are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 69% versus Forge 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 55% | Forge 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.38 xG and Forge 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.920 / defence 1.003 | Forge attack 0.994 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.124. Data: 32 York United games / 31 Forge games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: York United 43% | Draw 27% | Forge 30%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Forge 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Forge (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: York United 70% | Forge 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 43% | Draw 27% | Forge 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG York United 1.38 / Forge 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.920 / def 1.003 | Forge attack 0.994 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: York United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Forge xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Forge kick off?
York United vs Forge kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Forge?
York United 1 - 0 Forge.
Where is York United vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Forge part of?
York United vs Forge is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives York United a 43% chance of winning, Forge a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both York United and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Forge in?
York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Forge (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
York United's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.75
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
York United xG
Total xG
2.50
1.12
Forge xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are York United and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for York United and 1.12 for Forge, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, York United have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 8W 12D 9L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Forge's form line: 17W 2D 10L from 29 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Venue Form
On home soil, York United have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (4W 7D 3L).
On the road, Forge have gone 8W 1D 5L from 14 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.45 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Forge in coming into this match?
York United have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Forge have gone 17W 2D 10L in their last 29 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.36 PPG; Forge away: 1.79 PPG.
Have York United or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Forge in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Forge specifically: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
York United
3
Draws
7
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Forge have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between York United and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 64%, Forge 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (York United) and 36% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Forge in 43%; Forge in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of York United's recent matches and 29% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of York United's recent games and 36% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Forge tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Forge in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Forge 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Forge 1-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.38 xG and Forge 1.12 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Forge landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Forge attack 0.99 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it York United 43% | Draw 27% | Forge 30%, with York United to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 55%, Forge 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Forge's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with York United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.